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Concepts of Investments and Risk

Merry Christmas! Everyone!

I want to share a gift of knowledge with you. In relation to your Christmas futures. It is vital to learn how to invest in our future. Everyone has heard, as I’m guilty of saying as well, to save money for your future retirement. But the problem is, how do I invest it? How does it grow? What do I invest it in?

I would like to answer some of those questions here.

What’s the basics to investing?

First, knowing the Time Value of Money is valuable. The idea is, if you’re investing a certain amount of money every year for retirement, and you can assume it’s growing at an average rate, then how much money will you have to retire?

We utilize the Time Value of Money to calculate how much we need to save to reach our goals.

Vital to our tool belt is what Inflation is: The rate at which our currency is becoming less valuable. My Grandpa was telling me the other day about how at the store you could get a king-sized candy bar for a nickel. Nowadays the larger candybars are usually a dollar, or at a gas store a buck fifty. That’s inflation. If Inflation is growing faster than your money, then your investments aren’t doing to great.

What do people mean when they say an investment is riskier or safer?

Investment Risk, is the likelihood your investment will give a loss or less return than expected.

Many will say that a Bond is a “safer” investment than a Stock. An individual bond has a ‘guaranteed’ rate of return. This is because a Bond is debt, with required payments from the company who’s bond you own. A stock is in the market of that company, and will rise and fall as the companies valuations change.

If you’re only invested in one stock, you are in a risky investment. It isn’t necessarily true that bonds are safer. With some bonds, you have Inflation Risk, which is the risk that inflation will be greater than your return.

Safe investments are made when in conjunction with a Risk Tolerance, Financial Timeline of the investment, and proper diversification.

What is Risk Tolerance and Why Would It Affect My Investing?

 

This is an extremely generalized table of risk tolerance.

 

 

Younger Aggressive (1)

When we are younger we can subject ourselves to a greater risk with our long term investments, why? Because we’re young and if the stock market dips 30% in a year we can just wait till the market rebounds because you’re not retiring for 30 more years.

The basic concept of stocks and bonds for investing is to slowly overtime convert more of our investments from Stocks to Bonds and Cash to protect what has already grown. It’ll keep growing in a Bond, but at a slower and more predictable rate. This also helps to create a base level of guaranteed type income, (which can be supplemented with Pensions, Social Security, and Annuities also)

The ratio of Stocks to Bonds is called Allocation.

If Stocks are more jumpy, why invest in them at all?

The average return in the stock market since 1900 has been roughly 10.4%. Bonds have averaged somewhere between 5-6%. That is the basic reason why. Bonds, due to being debt instead of part of the companies growth are more guaranteed.

Why not 100% stocks then?

If someone is going to say “I’ll give you 99% chance of getting 5% more when I pay you back next year” you’re likely to love that when the contrasting option is “I’ll give you a 60% chance of being worth 10% more, and a 40% chance of being worth 10% less next year”. That’s the fundamental difference.Younger%2F Aggressive (2).png

When you’re closer to retirement, if too many of those coin flips become the negative ones you can see your retirement savings drown, and not recover for 5 -10 years. Well, when you’re retired and you need to spend the money this year. You start spending the money at that 10% drop or 20% drop.

Its good to have some in both, it gives you many baskets. If one basket drops, or has a bad year, overall lots of your eggs get safely there.

How Do You Step Into That Risk In The Stock Market?

Diversification is what allows investing in stocks to not be as risky, and can create reasonable believe that money will grow consistently over a long time period at a rate higher than most bonds.

The Market has a Beta of 1. This means that The market itself is 100% connected to itself. If a certain Stock has a beta of 2, then it’s expected to usually go up two dollars for every 1 dollar The Market goes up. If another stock has a beta of .3, then it’s expected to go up thirty cents per dollar the market goes up. This also is good because when the market goes down, it only goes down thirty cents per dollar.
Now, beta’s of stocks aren’t facts, but general trends that change over time. Having stocks in many different areas of The Market, allow for diversification.

If you want to get deeper into Allocation, Read some of Dr. Craig Israelsen’s work, the 7-twelve portfolio. It discusses 7 Asset Classes, and Twelve types of Stock’s and bond’s to be invested in. (That’s a lot of baskets to put your eggs in)

Where Do I start? Should I Buy Apple and Google Stock?

As a general rule, It’s extremely simple to get diversified by investing in a cheap ETF.

ETF stands for Electronically Traded Fund. These funds take an asset class such as Real Estate, Small Growth Company, or the entire S&P 500 series of 500 stocks and automatically invests a certain percentage of the fund into the different stocks that are available within their parameters. If you invest in their ETF, for a very small fee, they automatically keep the fund in par with the Market that it’s tracing.

When your money is in multiple types of ETF’s and perhaps a few stocks of companies you like, you have made a simple diversified portfolio. Some ETF’s even trace Bond’s, so you can get a healthy helping of bonds in their also. Any ETF that has Vanguard running it should be the cheapest type of ETF available. Vanguard is all about low cost investments.

How much growth should I expect in my savings?

It’s safe to expect growth, but how much growth? Most planners will not argue with me to say that though many will use numbers from 6%-8% that 6% is a reasonable expectation to have, if invested properly. This also depends on your risk. If you’re more heavily in bonds, you can expect it to be lower, if you’re more aggressive in stocks you can expect it to be a little bit higher.

What Questions do you have about investments that I haven’t answered? Send them to me at [email protected]  Or leave them in the comments below and I swear I’ll answer them!

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